April Fool - Avocado War - Nomads - Strawberries

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Hey Team,

I hope you had a great week. Let’s dive in.

April Fool

A decade ago I pulled off a textbook-funny April Fools joke.

But as I recalled it yesterday, I wasn't laughing. It was cruel and I'd take it back if I could.

The victim of my joke was my then-6-year-old daughter, Ava.

She's very smart, gets her work done, and is pretty easy-going. She's also gullible which is a curse if you live in my house.

The joke took place at the end of her kindergarten year.

My wife and I had just returned from a parent-teacher conference. The teacher's comments were positive as expected. But what made me really proud was the teacher's comment that she was one of the kindest and most helpful kids in the class.

The prank idea hit me as we entered the house.

The Prank

I went upstairs to find Ava. She's excited and a little nervous to hear the details of the meeting. I cracked a smile which put her at ease.

I spend several minutes telling her all the good things we heard. By the end, she's nodding as if this were all known and obvious. I told her I was especially proud to hear she was kind and helpful.

Then I told her I had one more thing to share. I paused for effect. Her eyes locked on mine.

I asked if she remembered how kids in Pre-K get nervous about moving up to kindergarten.

She nodded empathetically and rolled her eyes knowingly. But I can tell she's unclear about where the conversation is going.

Beaming with pride, I reveal the big news.

Her teacher asked if she could repeat kindergarten to help the Pre-K kids adjust. Even better, her mother and I agreed instantly to hold her back a year. It was an honor to be selected for this important role. I asked what she thought.

She can't speak. I don't think she's breathing.

I double-down and quickly replay the teacher's compliments and note how exciting this is!

She's can't process what she just heard. Then I see tears welling up.

"April Fools!"

Her body collapses with relief and in a few minutes she's half-laughing,

I thought this would be a fun first-time experience with April Fools for her. But I played it too long for a kid who really trusted me.

Does she love me today? Yes.

Does she trust me? Maybe?

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Avocado War

Avocado prices soared to a new, all-time high 2-days before the Super Bowl.

Holy guacamole. I felt obligated to say that.

The price spike had little do to with the Super Bowl. All the avocados needed for the big game were already in grocery stores.

Something more sinister was at play.

Green Gold and the Drug Cartels

US avocado consumption has tripled since 2001, and imports 80% from Mexico.

As prices soared, the cartels started stealing loaded trucks and extorting farmers. But they went too far recently.

An American avocado safety inspector received a threatening phone call, and the cartel was the prime suspect. The Dept of Agriculture responded by suspending all shipments from Mexico for one week.

That one week caused smaller chains and restaurants to run out of avocados and distributors to raise prices by 50%. The wholesale price chart below shows how just a one-week shut down of a supply chain takes multiple weeks to recover.

And for the geopolitical conspiracists on here, I know what you are thinking.

If the Russians delayed the invasion of Ukraine to avoid interrupting the Olympics, is it possible the US delayed its actions until we had a sufficient supply of avocados before the Super Bowl?
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We’ll never know.

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Nomads

While the news covers the return to the office story, there's another one you don't hear about as much. It's the rise of the digital nomad. These are people who embrace a location-independent, tech-enabled lifestyle so they can travel and work from anywhere.

The dark blue line shows how employees of larger companies are not only working remotely but have chosen to live in a series of temporary housing across the country and abroad.

I thought of this as the New York City mayor made an appeal earlier this week for workers to return to the office. He was referring to the commuters from NJ and CT who are now working from home. The city needs their income tax and the businesses need daytime and evening spending dollars.

But many of his missing fellow-citizens may be working from an island or on a mountain slope.

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A Strawberry

Japan is the size of California but with 100 million people. With land in short supply, they maximize the yield per square foot in everything they do.

This farmer growing strawberries provides an excellent example. The prices surprised me. Like, $350 for a single strawberry?

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Thanks for reading. This April Fool hopes you have a great weekend.

- Michael

P.S. as always, you can respond directly to this email and I will do my best to reply. I'd love to hear from you.

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