The Whole Elephant #14: In The Fog of War
Hi friends,
Here's the short version of how I feel about Ukraine:
F---.
The longer version is variations of the above.
Predicting the Future
We spend much of our lives creating physical and mental stability for ourselves.
If we detect uncertainty and risk, we race to find explanations and predictions. Politicians and macroeconomists offer them regularly. Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan (2007) popularized the observation we don’t go back to assess the accuracy of those explanations and predictions.
Taleb argues that we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we do. The root cause is more than a lack of information or context. It’s that we underestimate the impact of randomness on events.
The more I try to understand what’s happening in Ukraine, the more the butterfly effect in chaos theory comes to mind.
A single butterfly on the west coast of Africa flaps it's wings. That small event leads to the eventual 200-mph hurricane that hits Texas.
I suspect there are dozens if not hundreds of potential butterflies in and around Ukraine right now.
Mental stability comes from accepting the randomness of the situation.
Twitter Speed
When big events happen, I open Twitter.
It's the fastest source of information. And the most efficient way of seeing the whole elephant on a complex topic.
If you're new to Twitter or haven't used it in years, this is an eye-opening time to jump on. I recommend following this approach for your first week.
- Twitter will prompt you to follow familiar news media accounts. Avoid them. It may seem counterintuitive, but they will flood your feed with everything on their website.
- Avoid your favorite political talk show hosts. The accounts like Tucker Carlson and Rachel Maddow behave like advertising-driven accounts. What they tweet about and how they do it is to designed for dopamine hits.
- In fact, don't follow anyone yet. I know what you’re thinking, “Michael is playing a joke on me now. If I don’t follow anyone, how will I see anything?” Glad you’re paying attention.
- You want to be more in control of what you see vs. what others, including the Twitter algorithm, want you to see. First step: look over the shoulder of a few more experienced users.
I created a page here to show how to follow curated lists.
Give it a try. It will feel a little chaotic. It will also be clear that the volume and velocity of stories, theories, and images, including disinformation, exceed anyone's ability know what’s actually happening.
An Offer
If you’re new to Twitter and want to explore topics beyond Ukraine, let me know. I can send examples of accounts to consider.
Airlines Don’t Like Risk
Here’s what the airspace above Ukraine looks like at 5pm on Saturday local Kiev time. Click on the image to see a current view.
As you may recall, in July 2014, pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysian Air Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lampur. Investigators determined the surface-to-air missile originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation.
Understanding the Fog of War
The Fog of War won the 2003 Academy Award for Best Documentary.
It distills the hindsight observations of an 85-year-old Robert McNamara who was the US Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam War. It's rare to see someone so powerful share mistakes made.
McNamara was analytically brilliant. He was the 1st non-family member to lead Ford Motor Company. He later became President of The World Bank. He was also despised by many for how he handled the war.
There are two storylines. The first is the 11 lessons McNamara shares. The director Errol Morris weaves in historical footage as McNamara discusses each.
The 2nd storyline is watching McNamara as he speaks. He's humbled, and I sense apologetic. I sense a more profound struggle as well.
It’s one of my favorite films, and I think about it often. Consider watching it in between doomscrolling.
The streaming guide www.justwatch.com shows it's available for rent on the major platforms.
Instagram Before and After
We'll know things are better when the Ukranian government's official Instagram account resumes promoting the beauty in the country. Click on either image to see the account.
Current
Last Week:
That's it for this week. Let's all cross our fingers and hope that the right butterfly flaps its wings in the right direction.
Have a great weekend.
-Michael
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Michael Sklar
Showing the complex and curious every Saturday. | www.sklarinterests.com
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